Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,007$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,670.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58,670.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,726$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,457.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,457.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,391$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $309,455$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300,204.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(300,204.5\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,314$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,171.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(41,171.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $264,780$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $247,486$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(7.5 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236,047.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(236,047.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,330$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,361.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(27,361.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $68,780$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $239,706$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(6.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,693.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(232,693.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,678$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,613.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(33,613.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,303$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $63,890$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,788.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 93.9)}}\) (asimptote \(82,788.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,230$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(802 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,053.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,053.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $58,660$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $197,885$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(5.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,678.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(187,678.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,755$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(7.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,726.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,726.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $92,655$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,122$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,390.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(47,390.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,119$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,994.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,994.6\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,817$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,405$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(5.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,016.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,016.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,727$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(350 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,673.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,673.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $314$ on 2020-06-25