Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,007$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,670.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58,670.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,726$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,457.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,457.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,391$ on 2020-06-25

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $309,455$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300,204.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(300,204.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,314$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,171.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(41,171.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $264,780$ on 2020-06-25

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $247,486$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(7.5 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236,047.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(236,047.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,330$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,361.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(27,361.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68,780$ on 2020-06-25

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $239,706$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(6.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,693.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(232,693.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,678$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,613.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(33,613.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,303$ on 2020-06-25

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $63,890$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,788.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 93.9)}}\) (asimptote \(82,788.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,230$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(802 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,053.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,053.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,660$ on 2020-06-25

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $197,885$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,678.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(187,678.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,755$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(7.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,726.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,726.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $92,655$ on 2020-06-25

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,122$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,390.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(47,390.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,119$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,994.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,994.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,817$ on 2020-06-25

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,405$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,016.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,016.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,727$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(350 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,673.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,673.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $314$ on 2020-06-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

San Marino recovered 99%
Estonia recovered 91%
Malta recovered 91%
Italy recovered 83%
Lithuania recovered 78%
Hungary recovered 56%
Belarus recovered 27%
Poland recovered 10%

San Marino⮸

Population $33,931$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $698$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(183 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{696.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(696.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(18.9 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3$ on 2020-06-25

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,984$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(627 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,870.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,870.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(26 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.1)}}\) (asimptote \(67.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $125$ on 2020-06-25

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $668$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(178 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{633.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(633.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-25

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32$ on 2020-06-25

Lithuania⮸

Population $2,722,289$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,806$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(583 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,666.2}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,666.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $78$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(19.1 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77.2}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(77.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $234$ on 2020-06-25